Nepal’s Contemporary Politics

Post-CA election period is, politically much complex in Nepal. Prior to May 28, the ultimate goal of the political parties was to overthrow Monarchy led by Shah Dynasty since 240 years. Since then a new “political gamble” has been sparked.

Initial debate
Initial debate was linked to psychology of “looser-winners” theory. The CPN (Maoist), undermining all power structure both of the domestic and the external, dreamt to be sooner not later ruler of the country. They said- look we are not only the largest party in CA but the tallest! We are far ahead comparing to total seats achieved by other two big- the NC and the CPN (UML). Based on this myth, the Maoist claimed both of the executive positions- the President of Republic and the Prime Minister.
On the other hand, realising misappropriation in the CA election, UML and the NC felt crisis of confidence- whether Maoist rule according to law or imposed totalitarian regime by misusing the state power! In order to maintain check and balance, both of the parties in ruling coalition showed their stand- i) amend provision of  interim constitution- 2/3 necessary to form and dismiss government by simple majority and ii) let Maoist choose either ceremonial President or the Executive prime minister being a No. 1 Party in the CA.

This debate lingered about 1 month and at the eve of May 28; it is sorted out- Maoist choose post of executive prime minister and accept majoritarian formula to elect prime minister.

More Complexity
Just after the declaration of removal of Monarchy, the Maoist however changed their stand. They said- Yes, we accepted to elect separate person as the executive PM and the Ceremonial President; but we never said and will not accept GPK as the first President of FDR. We are looking for someone who does not have cult like Mr. Koirala. Because Mr. Koirala, according to them (it is true as well!), alone is the institution and would be able to create parallel power centre.

This announcement generated furious reaction from the NC sides. They put forward a 7-point condition for cooperation with the Maoist led government such as disband YCL, return siege-property, integrate combatant first with National army etc. In course of time both parties (Maoist and NC) made public their propaganda tactics. One hand Maoist leaders repeatedly said never and no way GPK would be first president of republic, on the other NC claimed no new government be launched until the differences are sorted out

At the mean time, Maoist threw another card saying- “new president would be from the civil society, a neutral and intellectual; if possible from Dalit or woman or indigenous or Madhesi community! This was purely non-political stunt hatched by the Maoist which didn’t last long.

Next turn linked with UML Party. The Maoist came to UML and asked, whether the UML accepts the post of President? UML was in position that every political understanding should be dealt in package.  UML was also sceptic with the Maoist thus said- i) it’s not a proper time for creating political polarization as left and non-left, we need consensus within main actors (Maoist-NC-UML at least, these parties command 2/3 majority necessary to adopt every clause of the future constitution), ii) Maoist must correct their behaviour and they should end immediately barracking system and Para-military character of their notorious youth wing- the YCL, iii) Presidency should remain in one of three sides- the UML or NC or the Maoist; however being largest party while Maoist choose executive PM, the President should go for NC. And if there is no way consensus between Maoist and NC- the UML suggest altering position between NC and UML (that is- President of republic to UML and president of CA to NC. Originally it was expected vice-versa!).

This position when surfaced informally in public media- a new wave of sensation generated! All non-left media started to attack sharply against UML. They fabricated news as saying-”Look two large communist groups married each other; it’s a dangerous symptom against democracy!” They even tried to stain UML digging out its historical past- terming “ex-Naxalite” to the new boss of UML, they said, he was General Secretary of those days when UML was launching armed struggle! Thus, these to groups are making strategically and tactical alliance!

Amidst such situation PM Koirala forced announce his resignation in CA meeting (however, it had only political meaning, neither constitutional nor the legal). It will be in effect only after appointment of New President. And election of new president is only then possible, when ongoing process of Constitutional amendment is completed.

Interestingly, immediate after PM’s announcement, he left the CA building whispering something with one of the Madhesi leader (who was senior minister in GPK’s cabinet long-time). Soon after that, the speaker asked law minister to table bill of 5th amendment in the constitution. The Madhesi leader with whom the octogenarian PM made whisper took floor and declared the Madhesi won’t allow to resume hose till the 5th Amendment incorporates 2 controversial clause- i) constitutional provision making whole plain land east-to west a single autonomous province and ii) constitutional provision to recruit Madhesi en-group into the National Army. It is noted that there are some 83 Madhesi CA member (out of 601) who adhere for such demands. The hidden agenda of this demand was Madhesi wants to introduce and establish principle- Nepal as the country of “Two- Nation”, i.e.; the Terai nation and the hill originated nation. The situation unfortunately coincided with similar argument when India and Pakistan was divided and Bangladesh was again separated from Pakistan.
On July 9, after 15 days disturbance of house, CA has been resumed with unfortunate scene. As per understanding, the Big-3s (UML-NC-Maoist) will prepare common phrase to incorporate Madhesis demand, if they feel it insufficient, Madhesi Parties will table amendment on it. However, when hose resume all process followed, the Madhesi party finally boycotted the house threatening if the process is continued- that part of land which they claim as Madhes would be separated from Nepal! Though as per understanding, Maoist Chairman addressed the CA and expressed commitment on behalf of government –in-waiting.

Road to elect Head of State, Government and CA
However, an agreement has been made; the Madhesis did not join CA till the process of Constitutional Amendment is completed accordingly. Then new round of political “gambling” started.
As stated above, UML had spent some 39 days with CPN (Maoist) hold 15 times meeting. Series of papers- for the tactical and the strategically alliance, and the MOU for the formation of left government and CMP was drafted. July 16 was chosen as the day for nomination of First President of FDR Nepal. In mid-night July 15 final understanding was made between UML and Maoist- President will be Com. M K Nepal- the former Gen. Secretary of UML, Vice-president go for Madhesi Peoples’ Rights Forum (MJF) and NC will stay out from the ruling coalition. Jubilant UML General Secretary issued notice to its entire central member for briefing meeting prior to nomination of its candidate to the President on 8 am July 16.

At 9:30 am another dramatic change took place, Maoist supremo hastily called on UML GS for an “extra-ordinary” meeting who was briefing CC about his tireless effort for “left-unity” within 39 days’ marathon exercise. The meeting was hold-on for a while. Next moment was extremely unexpected.
UML GS returned back and informed that the Maoist betrayed the UML. They changed their mind and declare 2 Madhesi candidates as the president and vice-president. They made new coalition kicking UML out and invited all Madhesi groups who had boycotted the house.

The entire UML –CC felt it as a grave insult. Time was running out to find any potential candidates or crate an equation. The UML had just 2 hours time and very limited options- i) staying out from the electoral process without supporting any candidates –ii) fielding its own candidate without caring votes and iii) supporting NC’s presidential candidate and seek support for UML vice-presidential candidate. However, there was slim chance to win the UML backed candidates. Very smartly the UML Standing Committee made a decision to form an alliance with NC, and fielded its own candidate for presidential and vice-prez post.

On the one hand this decision turned an instrumental to raise morale of UML and NC cadres on the other it was just unexpected action for Maoist Camp. They fielded an old Ram Raja Prasad Sing as the presidential candidate and an old lady for the vice-prez. However, Maoist action created unexpected reaction- here as well Maoist one more time betrayed with their coalition partner MJF! They had made an understanding to kick-out UML from the race committing MJF candidate would be vice-prez; however, when they made nomination, the candidate of vice-prez was the person out of their “understanding”.

From this very point political gambling took another interesting turn. Those who had betrayed by Maoist came in a single plate-form making a new alliance. This alliance however, was not based any “ism” and “ideals” but was a product of reaction of the Maoist action. NC-UML-MJF made understanding at the evening of July 17, distributing three major posts- Prez to NC, Vice-prez to MJF and the Chairperson of CA for UML. This number game was insufficient (22 vote) for the victory (298 votes). Then both camp (interestingly led by UML and opposite, the Maoist!) fleshed their muscle to garner support from the remaining fringe parties who were out of any coalition at that moment. July 18 first election was undecided for president (Vice prez won from NC-UML-MJF alliance), thus through the second round election of July 20, the president as well elected from NC-UML-MJF alliance.

It is very much unknown why the Maoist plays such an immature game? Why they betray major political parties one by one? Is there invisible hand behind this game? It seems no long-term benefit to the Maoist by this, short-term they even defeated! Their cadres and leaders were making face down! Then why they did this? Is it just a matter of over smartness? Perhaps the time will clear all shadows in the days to come.

Scenario at Post-presidential election
The presidential election has been converted into a serious blow to the Maoist leadership and a morale question has been raised.  Thus the Maoist in public said- they don’t have morality to led new government, since three parties’ coalition sufficiently commanding majority in the house. “The CPN (Maoist) as a largest party will try to form government only if this coalition is declared officially defunct”- they said.

However, the election of the UML leader Subash Chandra  Nembang without oppose in the post of Chairman in CA, the relevancy of NC-UML-MJF coalition ended. In order to form new government, three different trends had been surfaced -i) stay out Maoist and make centre-left coalition government led by NC-UML-MJF coalition; ii) form a new government between Maoist and the UML, and iii) Form a Government of National Unity led by Maoist.

The UML and the NC choose opposite direction in this very point. What ever reasons they may have made public, the NC was not ready to join any forms of government under Maoist. The UML position was- “Neither the Maoist push till to stay it out from the government, nor it has to give an “uncheck” access to lead sole government”.  Thus, The UML favoured the “Third option” (Formation of Government of National Unity), despite Maoist inconsistency, incredibility and conspiratorial character. The UML General Secretary said- “Let give a last chance to Maoist, and help to form and lead a government of National Unity which should incorporate as many as possible parties in the CA. That’s the only way to make easier the constitution writing process.”

The election of PM and the Coalition Government
The election of PM took place at August 15;  the very day, southern neighbour was celebrating its Independence Day. Candidate was Maoist supreme Pushpa Kamal Dahal alias Prachanda from major coalition. Interestingly this time the NC was out and the Maoist was in, in the UML-MJF coalition. All fringe parties supported this coalition during record vote in CA against NC candidate Sher Bahadur Deuba. Prachanda get victory commanding over 2/3rd majority against his rival. February 13, 1996 unknown Prachanda had launched armed rebellion against the then state where Sher Bahadur was prime minister. On August 15 2008; same Sher Bahadur was sidelined with heavy margin and the ex-rebel Prachanda declared second elected PM and first PM of the FDR.

The Coalition Government and its future
A Comment made by a journalist on fragile nature of coalition partners is interesting. “This alliance is fickle and fragile in the sense that the alliance partners are neither politically nor ideological close. Even CPN-UML and CPN-Maoists, though both are communists, have ideological differences. However, MJF is a party organized on the basis of regional sentiment not any political ideology….But since they are not bonded by any political program and ideology; there is possibility of breaking of their coalition at any time also. Their base of unit is now power and this basis are always fragile.” (More: Maoist-UML-MJF Alliance: Fickle and Flimsy)

Thus, it will bit early to predict future of the Coalition government in Nepal. We Nepali have funny habit to make non-issue as a very important issue and some times we are smarter to dilute mercilessly the very important issue. Looking to the record of month- we have spent more than sufficient bites on language, dress-code and hierarchies of protocol of our honourable and Rt. Honourables. At the last moment, due to conflict in protocol hierarchy the UML denied to attend August 23 oath ceremony of new government. If Maoist and UML continued to logger-head, it is almost sure UML will opt to stay out from the new coalition, and its consequences will certainly unhealthy for progressive politics.

Future of Trade Unionism in FDR
Let us have wait couples of week! I will come to you again.